What will happen at Christmas?

Dear Members,

What will happen at Christmas? is a key question. What is clear is that avoiding a second outbreak must be pretty high on the agenda. Can we trust Government to get this right? Clearly not. Unless we are in New Zealand.

There are so many variables in this. Any future forecasting is unreliable, look at the Bank of Englands forecasts, I have never seen such larger margings for error. At least they are saying it depends on the variables so they don’t know. Good for them.

There is enormous pressure on the Government to pretend it will be alright on the night, these are very real economic pressures not least of all the UK Credit rating. However what actually matters most is that our individual firms survive. Without our firms, there is no economy. So being lulled into a false sense of security is a very dangerous thing.

What can we do?

We need to gain as much certainty as possible and act in a flexible and adaptable manner partnering with staff and customers alike.

So here is some information

What if R is 3.0 again? Whatever it is – it’s bad.

Ask yourself – What will my business look like in March 2021? Assuming a 50% drop in Turnover will I be cash positive?

Where is that cash breakeven point for your business? If you are funding losses now – What can you do about it?

If your strategy is to wait till it all returns to normal – That is a high risk strategy.

HERE IS AN INTERESTING GRAPH

It is winter in Australia, and yet thanks, presumably, to social distancing the Flu virus has not made its normal appearance. In fact it is nil. This is the picture emerging across the Southern hemisphere.

On the face of it, the best way to keep your business safe, is to continue to isolate your staff, from each other and the outside world.

If you don’t meet people, you won’t catch it.

The fewer people who catch it the lower the transmission.

The Asymptomatic nature of the virus C19 is a game changer.

It demands we change our habits until this virus is defeated.

Failure to do so for 6 months is very irresponsible. Plan for March next year and hope that others feel the same.

 

More to follow on this

Stay safe

 

Nick

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