Covid 19 – Update – IT IS NOT OVER

Dear Members,

If you have a look on the Blog page you will see that we have been bringing you up to date news and information on the progress of the virus often weeks before it hit the national press. This is because of our contacts in the Bio Tec Space, plus a bit of common sense. Anyway our predictions have all been proven right.

We have been putting the local councils under significant pressure to ensure they are prepared with PPE for the next out break. So far their position is that “It is not their Responsibility” which beggars belief. (At least the Co-op were able to do their job for them – 250,000 face masks – Well Done). Hopefully they will learn in time and do the job we pay them for, to protect the community. Not negligently (from a moral perspective at least), sit at home on full pay whilst people die and our businesses are trashed. We are all in this together? Apparently not.

Why am I going on about this? Because it looks as if our Councills are unprepared, well everone in the public sector actually. They have had 6 months to sort PPE, and done very little. The Strategy seems to be to keep the virus at a low level. This is folly because it will mutate. Spanish Flu first out break killed 250,000 second mutation killed 50 million.

There is only one strategy and that is to eliminate it in the UK. They have done it in New Zealand. It is the Strategy we recomended in February 2020. The Hit to the economy will be far worse if we let it roll on. I am not going to any restaurant any time soon. My Life and that of my Family for £10 voucher? Really?

Here is some data from William Dahl of Southbank Research

Recent studies on Covid-19 immunity and vaccine prospects have made me think of the possibility no one wants to consider: that this could be with us well into 2021 or beyond.

Part of the grim realisation comes from recent numbers, which are the worst we’ve seen in a long time. Yesterday was, according to statistician and data guru Nate Silver, an “awful day” for coronavirus cases in the US. 62,000 new cases were reported – a record since 6 May. And with those 62,000 cases detected from just 670,000 tests, thousands or even tens of thousands of new infections likely went unreported. At this rate, the US could be seeing 100,000 newly confirmed cases a day soon. Meanwhile, hospitals are at overflow capacity in Texas and Florida. Bars are being shut down and large gatherings are being banned again, as governors walk back parts of their re-opening agendas.

“UK at a knife’s edge”

Meanwhile, the UK stands at a “knife’s edge”, according to Jeremy Farrar, government adviser and member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

“We’re on a knife edge – it’s very precarious, the situation, particularly in England at the moment, and I would anticipate we would see an increase in new cases over the coming weeks,” he told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, citing the end of lockdown.

Coronavirus cases are still significantly down in Britain compared to several weeks ago. But the country recorded 581 new cases yesterday, compared to 352 the day before. It could be statistical noise – or the first day of a real uptick, as the virus spreads post-lockdown and Farrar’s warning comes true. Deaths are a lagging indicator, with surges usually manifesting weeks to a month after cases spike. Even so, 126 people in the UK sadly died of the virus yesterday alone – per capita, about the same as the 897 US deaths reported yesterday.

Meanwhile, studies around the world increasingly show that herd immunity is a fantasy without an effective vaccine. Antibodies were detected in under 7% of Swedes – despite their government’s infamous policy of business as usual.Meanwhile, their deaths are the highest per capita reported anywhere, while their economy contracted more than 4% even without a lockdown.

Spain, which had a brutal outbreak early on, had just over 5% of its citizenry test positive for antibodies – and just under 1% of Americans have tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies. Even if they remained immune for life, that’s still a long way from the 60-70% estimated needed for herd immunity.

 

Stay Safe.

Nick

 

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