Business Survival – Cash NOW – Not Rockinghorse Loans Tomorrow

Dear Members,

It looks as if the banks are not really paying out the loans, we know stable busineses who have been offerred loans at 15% to 30% interest, so again the banks are cashing in or don’t want to help. With an 80% Guarantee from the Government, and Bank borrowings at 0.25% this is clearly, not an attempt to help. It is I fear a watershed moment for the Banks. We needed help – We got Rockinghorse **** – Rare and Expensive

What we need is Cash in the economy NOW.

Here is a letter we have put together with Ambassadors and Chamber Members, to try to get the ball rolling.

Dear Grant,

How is your conversation with the Chancellor going re actually supporting small business owners? Or the 60% of UK taxpayers that they employ?

I want to highlight the reality of the situation they are in:

  • Those Business Owners and their employees elected you time and time again.
  • Those Business Owners and their employees will be the first to innovate and drag us out of the recession which will inevitably follow the COVID “recovery”.
  • Those Business Owners and their employees have their houses on the line today and no useful help from Government.
  • If the Government does not get cash directly into those people’s bank accounts. Those people will become Boris’ Bankrupt Businesses…. By June 1,000,000 small businesses will close (see below)  And:
  • Those Business Owners and their employees will never forgive you if you help everyone apart from them.

As the dust settles, they will look for someone to blame. Unfortunately the Government is in the firing line, because the civil servants are camouflaged.

This could be the end of the “Party of Business” the Conservative Party.

Point made.

Let me move to a solution.

It’s simple. It’s radical. It will be cheaper than the bank bailout of 2007/8. It could replace most of the current ineffectual attempts at “support”.

… and it is deliverable this month.

 

It’s a short term universal basic income of, say, £1,000 per month per taxpayer.

Paid through the National Insurance or the Statutory Sick Pay mechanism. Avoiding the banks who are busy destroying your reputation again.

Boris can and must mandate this now. He can do the right thing and be “The Saviour of Britain’s Business” rather than the creator of Boris Bankrupt Businesses

Boris must hear this advice now and from friends, at the moment the press are supporting him, but they are turning, and will slaughter you if you dont act now.

Here are some supporting bits of evidence.

 

  1. In the UK for example: Source Blonde Money

    • A London lockdown costs £0.5bn per day (CEBR estimate)
    • 7% of UK small businesses have already closed and 12% plan to do so in the next month (Be The Business and Opinium survey)
    • 800,000-1million of them might have to close in the next four weeks (Corporate Finance Network survey)
    • Benefits for the self-employed won’t arrive until June
  2. Small businesses typically hold only a small cash buffer, as this chart from a JPM 2016 report shows  .
  3. And households don’t have much cash in hand either
  4. Even the fiscal stimulus can’t fully offset this, as the latest US GDP estimate from Goldman Sachs demonstrates
  5. The acute need for cash was echoed at a webinar hosted by Policy Exchange today with some of the key policymakers in the last financial crisis: Mervyn King, Alistair Darling and Nick Macpherson. They were all adamant that it isn’t enough to announce relief for business, it must be implemented. Otherwise, as former Chancellor Darling put it, “we will pay a much heavier price”. (See below for our notes of the event.)

 

Grant this is important. Now is the time for Leadership, not listening to academic experts who all disagree with each other. Just Tell the Revenue to implement this. They have the NI numbers of everyone who ever paid tax, in whatever form. Set Up a web portal, where people put in their NI Number, Address and their Bank Details. Revenue can confirm they are tax payers, and send them money. If they need help doing it, let me know, we have handled these volumes of data in the past from Ad campaigns. Fraudsters dont pay Tax. So it will save your paying out millions to Fraudsters through Universal Credit. Do this and people will see common sense (A Rockinghorse Commodity) and compassion in Government. They will remember it.

Stay Safe

Nick

 

Nick Brown

Chairman

Welwyn Hatfield Chamber of Commerce

11 Responses

  1. Nick Stephens
    | Reply

    Well done Nick – I couldn’t have said it better myself!

    • Nick Brown
      | Reply

      Nick hi,
      Thank you. Please see Reply to Matthew above.

      Keep Warm
      Stay Safe

      Nick

  2. Matthew Smith
    | Reply

    Well done nick, right behind your on this one.

    • Nick Brown
      | Reply

      Thank you to the many members who have been in touch expressing your support.

      Bottom line is Keep whatever cash you can in the business. Don’t sign personal Guarantees. If you can help it don’t borrow money. Why should business put itself into debt to pay for this avoidable crisis. Bloody cheek suggesting it.

      Get your staff to claim whatever benefits they can. Its still cash in the pockets of you and your team.
      What is clear, is that the people who generate the cash, are yet again being asked to take the pain and pay for the incompetence of the public sector (Front line staff, Nurses etc excluded) whose job it was to protect us from these problems.

      Bill Gate Predicted this Virus pandemic in 2015 See TED Talk. They have know for years, and yet the did nothing, except get paid.

      They Should have been prepared. They Were Not. They Should have stopped the planes, they still have not.
      They should have quaranteened everyone coming into the country from infected areas, either prior to the flight, or afterwards in the UK. They did not.

      What they did do was take full pay, paid for by us, whilst recommending that we take pay cuts and take out loans.

      This is the Unholy Trinity of Politicians, The Public Sector and Large Corporates (Banks in particular) looking after themselves at the expense of the people who pay their salaries. This is what the Gilets Jaunes are up in arms about in France. So the Police Tear Gas them. Let’s hope it does not come to that here. I think the Army would support the public. I cant see TA kids shooting their neighbours.

      Incidentally this is not the benefit of Hindsight, we have been saying this since February.

      Stay Safe

      Nick

  3. Ian Hartley
    | Reply

    Unprecedented problems call for radical solutions.

    I think these proposals are bold, innovative, and necessary. I fear that our elected officials do not have the vision or power to take such bold action, but the consequences of inaction will further devastate the nation. In times of crisis, people will only elect politicians who can lead from the front.

    Now is the time for decisive and innovative policies. For the many, not the few.

    • Nick Brown
      | Reply

      Ian hi,
      Thank you for your thoughts. It looks like the Herd Immunity advice from WHO on how to treat Flu, was wrongly applied in this case. For two reasons.

      1/. The asymptomatic nature of the virus, that is it can infect others for two weeks prior to symptoms appearing, means that it spreads in the community far further than doctors realised. and

      2/. The very extent of the spread of the virus has allowed it to Mutate as I understamd it 40 times so far, meaning that immunity to Strain A does not mean immunity to Strain B, or the following 38. If this is true, and I am no expert but this seems obvious, then the Herd Immunity strategy will have caused 10’s of thousands on Unnecessary deaths.

      So Yes I agree we need leaders, not people who hide behind experts, when the experts don’t agree.

      Surely its obvious that given the choice between having the virus in the country and not having it in the country, you would choose the later. But they did not. Further, the Planes continue to land for anyone who can afford a ticket. So the virus spreads and mutates and could as a consequence be with us for some time. With all the associated economic consequences.

      OK lots of unknowns here. But Why take the Risk? We should have stopped the planes. And as you say – That takes leadership.

      Nick

  4. David Chandler
    | Reply

    Excellent idea Nick

  5. David
    | Reply

    Excellent idea Nick

    • Nick Brown
      | Reply

      David hi,
      Thank you for your support.
      If nothing else Corona is seperating those who want to help, from those who seek to profit or obstruct.

      Nick

  6. Michael
    | Reply

    Hi Nick
    It doesn’t really address the business issues, businesses have suppliers that they need to pay! Some businesses need to continue trading or providing services with no revenue. Banks are not releasing funds or providing support to many businesses, particularly those in the hospitality industry despite promotional advertisements purporting to.

    The government has already agreed to underwrite 80% of any loans provided!

    Easy solution, Government issue an instruction to all banks that want to retain their licence that they are to provide a zero fee, zero interest overdraft facility to any company that banks with them for the duration !

    Overdraft can be limited to monthly payroll (easily verified via PAYE) plus an allocation for essential services, again easily verified.

    An agreed period can then be allowed for each bank to review the business plans for the recovery phase. This period will allow all businesses the opportunity to review their operating model, in some cases they will fail at this step even following a period of support, however the failure can then be controlled!! The bank will have only lost 20% of any potential losses and that could even be underwritten by Government in this first phase.

    Banks have been bailed out historically at a great cost to the country ! The shoe is now on the other foot!!

    • Nick Brown
      | Reply

      Michael hi,
      Yes you are quite right. I have been speaking to some bank managers this morning. They say they are working hard to get cash as quickly as possible to existing customers. I am about to write a Blog on it.
      Thank you for getting in touch. We are working hard on this and we are having an effect.

      Our thoughts are with you. What you do matters. You are a mainstay of this community. Feel free to tell your bank manager that. Writing off Travel and Entertainment Credit lines, is a short term view. People will still want to travel and meet each other afterwards. Liesure will be even more important. So the question is Are the Banks supporting our wellbeing and Economy / Or are they managing their downside credit risk. Either way they will most certainly be judged. I think this is a watershed for the banks. It is also a great PR opportunity for them to be seen to have the initiative to help.

      Stay safe

      Nick

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.